TRACKERS

Posted at 2:31 p.m. ET

Both trackers are now out for today, and both show Obama with a one-point lead.  Given that Obama normally polls better than he delivers, we can conclude that he's either leading very narrowing, or even slightly behind.

As I've said here before, this isn't the news the Democrats expected to receive as they fly to Denver this weekend.  Obama is clearly in trouble.  I can't imagine his vice presidential choice getting him out of it.  If you hear any "We want Kaine" or "We want Bayh" chants in your neighborhood, please alert me.  I haven't heard any.

So that would leave the convention itself and Obama's acceptance speech to produce the required "bounce."  But the GOP convention starts almost as the Dems have had their last tofu parties in Denver.  The McCain troops, becoming more effective every day, will be all over Obama.

For political junkies, the next two weeks should provide far better entertainment than anything on the major networks.

August 22, 2008.